US
- OFFICAL MANUFACTURING PMI - 52.8 in November, down from 54.1 in October. (2 year low)
- ISM MANUFACTURING PMI - 48.6 in November, down from 50.1 in October. (It has now fallen for six straight months.)
Analysis: The US manufacturing sector moved into contraction in November, according to the ISM manufacturing PMI. This weakened the dollar because it could complicate the FOMC's December decision on lifting interest rates. As has been the theme this year, a strong dollar in anticipation of a rate rise ends up stalling economic momentum by eroding the US' global competiveness, a factor most apparent in their manufacturing sector. With Fed chair Janet Yellen due to testify this week, however, we do not expect metals to get any respite from a sustained reduction in the dollar as she is likely to maintain her hawkish tone.
CHINA
- OFFICIAL MANUFACTURING PMI - 49.6 in November, down from 49.8 in October. (3 year low)
- CAIXIN MANUFACTURING PMI - 48.6 in November, up from 48.3 in October. (Five month high)
Analysis: Both the official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs continued to show that the Chinese manufacturing sector remains in contraction although the Caixin indicator showed the first easing in the rate of contraction since June. Since this indicator covers more small to medium-sized businesses, which are likely to be more sensitive to any improvement, there is a potential improvement in the real economy.
EUROPE
- OFFICAL MANUFACTURING PMI - 52.8 in November up from 52.3 in October. (Highest since March 2013)
- GERMAN MANUFACTURING PMI - 52.9 in November up from 52.1 in October. (Three month high)
- FRENCH MANUFACTURING PMI - 50.6 in November flat from 50.6 in October. (Three straight month of expansion)
- ITALIAN MANUFACTURING PMI - 54.9 in November up from 54.1 in October. (Four month high)
Analysis: With the ECB reducing growth expectations and inflation outlooks and president Mario Draghi hinting heavily that an extension and expansion to its 60-billion-euros-per-month asset purchase programme will be required to return the eurozone to health, this signal of a resurgence in manufacturing across the bloc provides a more positive outlook than has been the case of late. The ECB is widely expected to extend QE past its current September 2016 end-date and also to cut rates further at its press conference this week.
(Editing by Mark Shaw)