REMINDER
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MATERIAL
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LOCATION
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PREMIUMS IN USD/TONNE
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NOTES
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Copper A
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Singapore
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15-20
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5% of stocks; LME stocks down 100t. Prices firm above $4,700/t. Cash/threes backwardation widens to $12. Higher buying interest for warrants of certain brands.
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South Korea
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10-20
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2% of stocks; LME stocks flat
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CIF Korea
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85-95
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Last PPS tender at $78-89 (Zambian and Chilean); stronger demand for LME grades seen due to Zambian production cuts. Off-grade African brands around 20-30; Unregistered Chilean brands around 60-70
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Malaysia
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0-20
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17% of stocks; stocks down 1,800t, mainly Zambian/Indian origin.
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Rotterdam
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10-20
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14% of stocks; LME stocks down 800t; buying interest seen
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CIF Rotterdam
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50-55
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More enquiries but ample supply caps the upside of premiums. Off-grade around 20-30
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Vlissingen
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10-20
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LME stocks flat, Just 325t left
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Antwerp
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10-20
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5% of stocks, stocks down 150t
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Germany
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95-105 delivered
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No LME stocks; stable demand seen
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Bilbao
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10-20
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LME stocks flat (only 25t); Spain CIF heard around 50-55
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Italy
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15-25
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No more LME stocks
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CIF Italy
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55-60
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Spot business quiet with little movement in premiums, off-warrant stocks ample
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US warrants
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0-15
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48% of stocks, stocks down 13,575t; Istim Nola queue emerged at 11 calendar days as end-Jan
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US Midwest
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5.25-5.75 cents/lb dlvd
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Premiums under pressure on weak demand, ample consumer stocks.
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Shanghai
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75-85 CIF (SX-EW 75-80, ER 80-85)
75-85 bonded (SX-EW 75-80, ER 80-85)
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Premiums down due to firmly shut arb window for copper cathodes, increased shipments into Shanghai. Trades for CIF and bonded heard as low as $70 and as high as $90. Spot buying still quiet since CNY holiday. Bonded stocks down to 3-mth low of 360,000-380,000t at end-Jan
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CIF Japan
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75-85 (ER only)
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No LME stocks, no import. Quiet market
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CIF Taiwan
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80-90
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LME stocks flat, market slows after CNY
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2016 contracts
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Aurubis and Codelco cut premium in Europe to 92, deals heard done either side of benchmark. Codelco cut premiums to 98 in China, 92 in Taiwan/Korea/Japan. PPC at 105 in China/Taiwan, talk of deals below 90.Traders offer discounts of 10-20 to benchmarks in China/Taiwan. US Midwest booked at 5-5.5 c/lb; Codelco set to agree to 2.5-3 c/lb CIF Panama City.
2015 recap - Europe: Aurubis at 110, Codelco at 112. Asia: PPC 115; Codelco 133 in China, 115 in Korea/Taiwan/Japan, 127-135 in Vietnam/Malaysia. US Codelco 4 cents/lb CIF Panama. Less LTC booked despite discounts to benchmark offered
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Aluminium
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Singapore
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80-90 ingots; 70-80 sows
Some warrants at 40-70
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10% of stocks; stocks up 150t; prices hold just below $1600/t, supply overhang remains despite cutbacks. Cash-3s flares to $23 backwardation, cash-Mar/April also tighter.
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CIF Singapore
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100-110 ingots
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Market stable but demand unimpressive;
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South Korea
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85-95 ingots on-warrant
95-105 off-warrant
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4% of stocks, LME stocks flat. Off-warrant stocks decline to around 700,000t as traders shift metal to the US
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CIF Korea
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100-110 ingots
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High stocks; last PPS tender at $114.40/t for 700t
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Malaysia
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80-90 ingots
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6% of stocks, LME stocks flat
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CIF Malaysia
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100-110 ingots
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Quiet market
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Rotterdam
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75-85 DUP, 125-135 DP ingots
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22% of stocks; LME stocks flat; Premiums drop further as nearby spread backwardation flares up, cash-and-carry stock financing unprofitable
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Vlissingen
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Clearing with queue
70-80 DUP, 120-130 DP noQ
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40% of stocks; stocks up 90,875t
Queue falls to 7 months on LORI rules in Pacorini sheds; QBRC to take effect in June. No delivery in stages
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Antwerp
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70-80 DUP, 120-130 DP ingots
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1% of stocks; LME stocks flat
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Italy
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170-180 DP FCA
170-180 in the North and 175-180 in the South
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4% of stocks; stocks flat; South-North premium differential maintained as supply to the South remains relatively tighter
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Spain
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170-180 DP FCA
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1% of stocks; LME stocks down 2,025/t
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Turkey
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130-140 DUP FCA
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Demand from Turkish market stable. Consumers slowly returning to spot
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Baltimore
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140-150 INW noQ
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4% of stocks; LME stocks flat; in strong hands
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Detroit
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Clearing with queue
140-150 INW noQ
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7% of stocks; LME stocks flat; queue falls to 5 mths in Metro on LORI rules, unpopular material in queue
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Chicago
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140-150
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Stocks depleted
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New Orleans
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140-150, locked up
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LME stocks flat (only 500t), queue of 11 calendar days emerges at Istim Metals
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Mobile
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140-150 INW noQ
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No LME stocks
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US Midwest
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8.6-9.0 cents/lb dlvd DUP
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11% of stocks; LME stocks flat; US premiums drop as demand shows signs of slowing. Most consumers are well covered at start of Q2
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CIF Brazil
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160-170 Santos DUP
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Poor demand, high stocks in Santos port
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Shanghai
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90-100 CIF
80-90 bonded
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Bonded stocks fall to 17,000-22,000 t at end-January; 6 producers set up JV for stockpiling, rumoured 1 mill tonnes
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CIF Taiwan
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100-110 CIF
100-110 bonded
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No LME stocks, plenty of off-warrant stocks available
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CIF Japan
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MJP Q1 settles at $110
Spot market at 110-115
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Q2 negotiations start with offers of $125-130, slight increase to Q1's $110 anticipated
Spot buying dries up on stronger LME price, destocking before April 1 end of financial year; Japanese port stocks drop to 14-mth low at 368,100 tonnes in January. No LME stocks
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2016 contracts
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Premium curve flattens for 2016; some see upside risks in H2 but CME futures curve in backwardation; some fixed contracts heard above 10 c/lb in US. Europe: buyers prefer floating premiums.
2015 recap - Europe: Rotterdam DP at 480-490 inw, Italy 520-540 DP FCA. US Midwest mainly on floating basis, some fix contract talks at 10-12 cents/lb. Asia - partly booked on floating MJP basis, partly left for spot
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Zinc SHG
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Singapore
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55-65 high lead
70-80 low lead
110-120 FCA high lead
120-130 FCA low lead
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1% of stocks, LME stocks up 1,250t. Price rebounds to around $1,790/t. Cash-3s last at $5 contango. Gap between high-lead and low-lead brands narrows due to a pickup of interest for low lead
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Malaysia
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50-60 high lead; 75-85 low lead
110-120 FCA high lead; 120-130 FCA low lead
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7% of stocks; LME stocks down 17,250t. No more queue at Pacorini Johor. High off-warrant stocks of around 50,000t
Other Southeast Asian locations and South Korea: CIF 105-115, last PPS tender at 130 for Indian brands
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Rotterdam
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FCA 85-100 DUP, 130-145 DP
70-80 inw
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2% of stocks, LME stocks flat, no more queue in Rott, Vliss. Weak demand, market stable
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Antwerp
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FCA 85-100 DUP, 130-145 DP
60-70 high lead inw
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12% of stocks, LME stocks flat
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Italy
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160-170 DP FCA; 195-205 dlvd
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No LME stocks, thin buying interest, ample supply
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US warrants
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0-5
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78% of stocks, LME stocks down 1,000t, no more queue at Istim, fresh delivery in Nola
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US Midwest
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6.5-7.0 cents/lb dlvd
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Premiums unable to climb off of historically low levels due to high stocks and slack demand
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Shanghai
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105-120 CIF
105-120 bonded
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Lots of offers, but trading volume extremely thin due to closed physical arb window, end-user demand still weak
Bonded stocks are rising recently
Top brands on higher ends such as Korean and Australian materials
Taiwan at 115-130 CIF, weak demand, no LME stocks
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Jebel Ali – Dubai
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120-140 FCA high lead
160-180 FCA low lead
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No LME stocks. Off-warrant stocks of 20,000-30,000t declines but ample supply of HG zinc including Iranian.
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2016 contracts
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US deals at 7-7.75 c/lb dlvd; Europe deals done at 125-145 DP FCA Rotterdam. Lower trend seen in Asia - China deals done at 100-120 CIF; Taiwan deals done at 130-145 CIF; SE Asia offers at 145-160 CIF, bids at 125-150.
2015 recap: very few LTC deals in China due to bids-offers $30-60 apart (offers 130-160); Southeast Asia: 170-185 CIF; Taiwan: 160-180 CIF with producers, traders lower at 155-160; US at 9-9.5 cents/lb. Europe: Italy 230-240 dlvd, Rotterdam at 140-160 DP FCA. Middle East at 190-210 FCA
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Nickel
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Singapore
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50-60 FP; 5-15 briq; 60-70 cut (no offers)
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11% of stocks; LME stocks up 672t. Prices hold strong above $8,600/t. Cash/threes contango widens to $26.
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South Korea
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40-60 FP, 5-15 briq
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2% of stocks; stocks down 78t; last PPS tender for 200t at 400 CIF premium
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Malaysia
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50-60 FP / 0-10 briq no queue
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35% of stocks; stocks down 1,986t, no queue in Pacorini Johor
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Rotterdam
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40-60 FP; 30-50 briq; 190-210 cut
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26% of stocks; stocks up 2,490t. Tightness seen in briquettes; stainless demand sluggish but off-grade material tight and full plates in strong hands
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Vlissingen
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45-55
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LME stocks down 108t, no queue
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Antwerp
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45-55
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LME stocks down 24t (only 504t), no queue
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Sweden
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30-40
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LME stocks flat, no queue
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UK
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30-40
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2% of stocks; LME stocks flat
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US Midwest
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12-16 cents/lb melting
60-65 cents/lb plating
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2% of stocks; LME stocks down 942t flat. Tightness in cut cathodes eases. Discounted briquettes still in the market
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Shanghai
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150-170 FP bonded
150-170 FP CIF, 0-30 briq
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Physical arb fluctuating and turned negative this week; weak end-user demand seen post-CNY holidays.
Off-grade material supply increasingly tight.
Bonded stocks down to 65,000-75,000t end-Jan; market expect end-Feb bonded stocks to increase due to unfavourable arb and Chinese New Year
Stocks in Taiwan down 624t, 14% of stocks
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Dubai
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30-40
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4% of stocks (mostly briq), LME stocks flat
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Japan
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12-13 cents/lb GSP duty free
130-140 FP CIF
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No LME stocks; very quiet market as Japan has enough local/duty-free supply
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2016 contracts
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Deals in Europe reached with premiums of $40-65 per tonne on in-warehouse Rotterdam basis, down from a wider range of $50-90 in 2015.; offers seen at 120-130 FP CIF Shanghai; some buyers would rather play spot market in 2016 than agree to full-year fixed contracts
2015 recap - China: some contracts booked at 120-130 CIF FP, fewer LTC deals. Europe: 50-90 FP inw. US melting FP at 15-25 c/lb
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Lead
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Singapore
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15-25 for 99.97%
60-80 for 99.99%
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No LME stocks; Prices fall back below $1,800/t; Nearby spreads shift to backwardation, cash/3s last at $1.25 back. Battery scrap still tight in Europe, spot buying interest thin.
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Malaysia
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15-25 for 99.97%
60-70 for 99.99%
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35% of stocks; LME stocks flat.
South-East Asia at 100-110 CIF for 99.97% primary, 80-90 for secondary and 140-150 CIF for 99.99%, no more queue at Pacorini Johor
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South Korea
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0-15 for 99.97%
100-110 CIF for 99.97% primary
90-100 for secondary
135-150 CIF for 99.99%
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21% of stocks; LME stocks flat. Last Korean PPS tender at 110 CIF duty free for 99.99% Indian origin.
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Taiwan
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10-20 for 99.97%
CIF 100-110 for 99.97%, 125-135 for 99.99%; secondary 99.97% at 75-90
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LME stocks flat at 25t; End-user demand quite low, ample secondary supply; Iran offers at 55-65
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India
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80-100 CIF for 99.97% (primary
and secondary)
140-150 CIF for 99.99%
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Premiums stable, trading volume thin, no trades were reported for 99.97% due to ample local supply;
Market eyes mine production issues.
Iran offers secondary spot at 50-60
100-110 CIF for non-LME 99.97%, 230-240 CIF for ASEAN FTA 99.99%
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Rotterdam
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10-20 for 99.97%; 60-70 DP FCA
165-175 DP FCA for 99.99%
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3% of stocks, LME stocks down 50t, warrants in strong hands
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Vlissingen
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0-15
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31% of stocks; LME stocks down 12,000t; no queue
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Antwerp
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10-20 DP 99.97%
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5% of stocks; LME stocks flat, no queue
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Spain
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15-20
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2% of stocks; LME stocks up 1,150t.
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Italy
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15-20 for 99.97%; 80-90 FCA DP
140-150 dlvd North Italy
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LME stocks flat at 25t, slower demand, battery scrap supply still tight
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US warrants
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20-30
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No LME stocks, no queue in Metro Detroit, Istim New Orleans
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US Midwest
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9-10 cents/lb dlvd for 99.97%; 12-13 cents for 99.99%
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Ample supply, high imports from Asia keep premiums low despite OK battery demand
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2016 contracts
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US: early 2016 99.99% deals at 12.5-14 cents. Asia: offers at CIF $90-100 for 99.97%; 99.99% deals at 125-135 CIF Taiwan, 130-150 elsewhere on KZ expansion. Deals at $130 dlvd for 99.97% in Eastern Europe, $150-160 dlvd for 99.97% in Italy.
2015 recap: Asia: 99.97% at 90-110 CIF Asia, 99.99% at 140-170; India: 99.97% at 75-95 CIF; Europe: 99.97% at 140-155 dlvd; US 13-14 cents dlvd Midwest for 99.99%, 99.97% around 10 cents
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Tin
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Singapore
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0-20 for 99.85%; 80-110 for 99.9%, 200-250 low lead (<100ppm)
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38% of stocks; LME stocks down 25t in Singapore. Down to 3,300t in total. Prices trade on either side of $16,000/t; tin smelter RBT closure supports premiums; low on-warrant LME stocks. Cash/threes backwardation widens to $160.
Jan tin export declined to under 2,500t from 5,800t in December
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Malaysia
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0-20 for 99.85%
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55% of stocks; stocks down 35t, no queue. Some 99.9% offered at 125-150
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South Korea
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75-125 for 99.85% DUP, 200-250 for 99.9% (no trade)
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LME stocks flat only 30t, quiet market, high off-warrant stocks. Last PPS for 200t of 99.85% at 364-384 (duty free) in Nov
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Rotterdam
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325-375 for 99.85%; 350-400 for 99.9%; 450-500 low lead (<100ppm)
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5% of stocks; LME stocks flat. Some enquiries for spot material, market expects higher premiums if low Indonesian exports continue
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CIF Rotterdam
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300-350 for 99.85%, 320-370 for 99.9%; 440-490 low lead (<100ppm)
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End-users well covered by existing stocks.
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CIF Shanghai
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125-175 for 99.85%; 200-250 for 99.9%; 310-360 low lead
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Chinese smelters claim to cut 17,000t refined production but actual cuts will be less.
Several leading Chinese producers to carry out commercial stockpiling of 20,000-30,000 tonnes.
Premiums vary on quality and tonnage; CIF Taiwan 180-220 for 99.9%, 375-425 low lead, no LME stocks
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US Baltimore
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390-420 for 99.85%, 425-475 for 99.9%; 450-600 low lead (<100ppm) in-warehouse
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No LME stocks, still reasonable off-warrant inventories, buying interest stable; wide premium range for low lead: <50 ppm valued around 600s
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US Midwest
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450-550 for 99.85%; 525-575 for 99.9%; 625-675 low lead
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Lower producer offers
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2016 contracts
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2016 99.9-percent premiums decline in Europe: some annual deals heard at $340-420 CIF Rotterdam; for low-lead, some annual deals at $490-520 CIF Rotterdam
2015 recap - Rotterdam booked above 550 inw for low lead (550-600 in 2014) and 360-400 for standard 99.9% (425-450 in 2014). No numbers for MSC (380-400 in 2014), Asia: some deals at 260-300 for 99.9%, some suppliers shun LTCs
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Premiums are paid on top of London Metal Exchange cash prices to acquire ownership or secure delivery of physical metal at an agreed location and date. Rates vary according to brand, specification, purity, tonnage, payment terms and warehouse operator.
FastMarkets assess premiums for LME warrants based on in-warehouse delivery excluding FOT removal charges and for physical material based on CIF or FCA delivery. They are nominal indications only, based on contributions from market sources, and should not be construed as actual bids and offers.
Our stocks data represent weekly variations for warranted volumes. Clearing material can be obtained at level by brokers only through the LME clearing system.
(Table compiled by FastMarkets’ Physical reporting team, physicals@fastmarkets.com )
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