ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - Markets face a busy agenda

London 29/03/2016 - Markets are set for a busy schedule of data this week as they return from the long Easter weekend.  As well, Thursday also marks month-end, quarter-end, and in the case of Japan, fiscal-year end, with last minute book tidying likely to dominate.

Plenty of data is due from the US this week, which culminates Friday with the March US non-farm payrolls.  Average hourly earnings will be of particular focus, given emerging signs of wage pressure, particularly in the wake of the March FOMC, where the Fed Summary of Economic Projections suggested only two hikes in 2016 instead of the 3-4 previously projected. 

As well markets will be scrutinizing Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who is scheduled to speak Tuesday at an Economics Club luncheon in New York.

Data over the past few days has proven mixed.  Data Friday showed the US economy expanded at an annualized 2.4 percent pace in the final quarter of 2015, somewhat stronger than the 2 percent forecast.  Meanwhile, core PCE inflation yesterday, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed inflation is not going anywhere fast, increasing just 0.1 percent month-on-month. 

Personal spending was also little changed last month, however pending home sales accelerated last month to a seasonally adjusted reading of 109.1 units in February, according to the National Association of Realtors.

CB consumer confidence is also due Tuesday, while the line-up for the rest of the week includes ADP employment change Wednesday, Challenger jobs cuts and weekly jobless claims Thursday.  Friday's data also includes ISM Manufacturing PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment and Construction Spending.  March vehicle sales figures will also be a useful gauge for consumer spending.

Figures from Japan overnight have shown household spending rose 1.2 percent on the year in February, however the stronger-than-forecast reading was offset by disappointing retail sales and employment data.

Data at the time of writing showed Eurozone M3 money supply increased 5 percent year-on-year, while private loans increased by a faster-than-expected 1.6 percent.  Other data due from the region includes various flash CPI inflation readings Thursday, which are expected to show deflationary pressures persist overall. German retail sales and unemployment change figures are also due, along with the UK's Q4 Final GDP reading and individual borrowing figures.  Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is also due to speak.

Friday will be particularly busy, with the latest round of manufacturing PMI readings scheduled.  Official Chinese manufacturing and service PMI readings along with the Caixin manufacturing data are likely to prove pivotal for base metal price sentiment heading into what is the traditional peak demand period.  Signs of a steeper slowdown are likely to act as a further price drag, particularly given recent data suggests the People's Bank of China may not have as much room to ease monetary policy as markets hope. 

(Editing by Martin Hayes)