Tucson, Arizona 04/05/2016 - Mexico's copper demand growth is outpacing regional economies like Brazil and is up 25 percent between 2010 and 2015, which should justify an increase in mining and smelting capacities by 2020, according to Carlos Risopatron, International Copper Study Group (ICSG) director of economic & environment, said on Wednesday.
"Brazil is having problems but Mexico is growing in terms of refined demand," said Risopatron, who estimated 2015 refined copper demand was about 500,000 tonnes. "[At this rate], Mexican demand for refined copper may be bigger than India in a few years."
On the supply-side, Mexico's copper mine capacity in 2015 was roughly 688,000 tonnes, but three mine expansions led by Grupo Mexico's Buenavista SX-EW operation are expected to grow total capacity to one million tonnes by 2019.
"Concentrate production is expected to grow significantly," Risopatron said at the American Copper Council conference here.
Without new smelter and refinery capacity, Mexico's copper concentrate surplus would increased to 300,000 a year by 2020, but he did mention that recent expansions are expected to come online at the beginning of the next decade.
MEXICO TRADE
Mexico remains a net-exporter of copper ores and concentrates at around 200,000 tonnes a year. While net exports of copper and alloy scrap are significant at 100,000 tonnes.
The country remains a large net importer of semi-fabricated products with imports at 190,000 tonnes and exports of 72,000 tonnes.
Mexico copper and alloy fabrication capacity was 861,400 tonnes last year, driven by strong export demand for tubes, bars and flat products.
However, data is lacking with 28 plants identified but no accurate output or capacity data. And there is no official government statistics on fabrication of copper and copper products..
Nevertheless, moving forward there is a big opportunity for smelting expansion and the growth of semi-fabricated import substitution and the country is one of the most important in terms of capacity and growth, Risopatron concluded.
(Editing by Tom Jennemann)