LME CLOSE - Metals recover losses, shrug off disappointing data to end higher

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Martin Hayesmartin.hayes@fastmarkets.com+44 (0) 20 7337 2148

London 16/05/2016 - Base metals continued to range higher during late-Monday LME trading while further strength in crude oil and gold outweighed some soft US economic data, traders said.

This helped copper put some distance from early two-and-a-half-month lows below $4,600, while lead and nickel bounced off one-month lows.

"It was 'third Wednesday' [May date pricing] so we saw a bit of buying of cash but it has mostly been rangy," a trader said.

Spot Brent crude rose to a six-month high of $49.43 per barrel at one stage before holding recently around $49.15 while gold bullion hit a two-week best of $1,288.80 per ounce.

"It hasn't been too exciting today and although the markets are holding up quite well - all things considered - there is probably more to go on the downside for this move," a floor trader said.

In the US data, the May Empire State manufacturing index was -9.0, whereas a 7.2 reading had been forecast. The NAHB housing market index for the same month was 58 against an expected 59.

Earlier softness in prices was due to important weekend Chinese data also undershooting. April industrial production rose 6.0 percent, which was below the forecast 6.5 percent, while fixed asset growth at 10.5 percent also undershot the predicted 10.7 percent. Retail sales climbing 10.1 percent missed the expected 10.6 percent.

In the metals, copper touched $4,687 before ending the day at $4,650 per tonne, a $23 gain from Friday. Earlier it fell as low as $4,596, the softest since mid-February.

"Copper is seeing a bit of stickability around here - $4,600ish - but it will be vulnerable if there is a move down to $4,500," the floor trader added.

This morning warehouse stocks rose a net 2,350 tonnes to 159,025 tonnes. The Gwangyang total climbed 1,250 tonnes to 5,750 tonnes although there were also arrivals in Johor, Kaohsiung and New Orleans.

Meanwhile, SHFE stocks fell almost 27,000 tonnes to 286,210 tonnes as of May 13; there is growing speculation that metal will continue to move from there to LME-listed warehouses in the coming weeks.

In others, aluminium closed at $1,549, up $14. Today, inventories and cancelled warrants both fell 6,625 tonnes to 2,577,775 tonnes and 1,054,275 tonnes respectively.

Lead rose strongly from its low of $1,691 to finish at $1,738, a $30 gain, amid nearby tightness - cash/threes traded at a compact contango of $6.50. Stocks fell 250 tonnes to 175,825 tonnes.

Nickel jumped off its $8,565 low to close at $8,720, up $70. This morning inventories dropped 5,880 tonnes to 406,464 tonnes, a move centred on Rotterdam - as was the 4,770-tonne drop in cancelled warrants.

Zinc concluded at $1,901, up $13, while stocks fell 325 tonnes to 390,050 tonnes. Tin closed at $16,905, up $250, although inventories rose 95 tonnes to 6,520 tonnes.

Steel was indicated at $65/115, cobalt at $23,250/23,750 and molybdenum at $14,800/15,300.

(Additional reporting by Kathleen Retourne, editing by Mark Shaw)



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