Singapore 20/05/2016 - The global nickel and tin market registered deficits, while the aluminium market registered a surplus in the first quarter of this year, according to latest data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS).
The deficit in the global nickel market expanded to 8,400 tonnes in the first quarter from 4,400 tonnes in January-February. The nickel market was in a surplus of 33,600 tonnes for the entire 2015.
Nickel mine production fell 14,000 tonnes year-on-year to 517,300 tonnes in the first three months of the year. Refined nickel production was at 409,800 tonnes during the same period.
World apparent demand for nickel increased 67,000 tonnes year-on-year to 418,200 tonnes during the first quarter.
Market participants have largely forecasted deficits for the nickel market for the entire 2015. But many still note that supply cuts are not progressing fast enough while the global inventory overhang remains large.
Morgan Stanley said earlier this month that nickel is facing bearish fundamental conditions like price-insensitive supply growth, high exchange inventories and weak demand growth, while Norilsk Nickel pointed out that only a quarter of loss-making nickel capacity are at risk of closure.
But Macquarie Commodities Research noted that nickel’s fundamentals have steadily improved in recent months, with better demand observed, while faltering supply at mines and stock drawdowns beginning to take place now.
“We see prices lifting, but high stocks and growing nickel pig iron output from Indonesia does rather stunt our bullishness, capping out at $15,000 per tonne in four years’ time,” it added in a report on Wednesday.
Macquarie forecasts the 2016 nickel price at $9,625, and the third quarter and fourth quarter 2016 nickel prices at $10,000 and $11,000 respectively.
The London Metal Exchange three-month nickel price was last at $8,620 on Friday, up $65 from Thursday’s close.
Meanwhile, the global primary aluminium market registered a surplus of 48,000 tonnes in January-March, following a surplus of 9,500 tonnes in January-February, according to WBMS. The aluminium market was in a deficit of 308,000 tonnes in the whole of 2015.
Global demand for aluminium fell 664,000 tonnes or 4.8 percent year-on-year to 13.28 million tonnes in January-March. Production slipped 656,000 tonnes or 4.7 percent year-on-year during the same period.
Chinese aluminium output was estimated at 6.821 million tonnes in January-March, accounting for more than 51 percent of world production. Chinese apparent demand of aluminium fell 9.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter.
The tin market recorded a deficit of 2,000 tonnes in January-March, relatively unchanged from the 2,100-tonne deficit in January-February.
Global tin demand rose 2.6 percent year-on-year to 90,000 tonnes, and refined tin production increased 3,600 tonnes during the period.
Tin production in Asia increased to 74,400 tonnes in the first quarter of this year from 69,600 tonnes for the same period last year.