LME CLOSE - Metals cut losses on corrective buying, sentiment remains flabby

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Martin Hayesmartin.hayes@fastmarkets.com+44 (0) 20 7337 2148

London 24/05/2016 - Base metals moved away from their earlier multi-month lows during late LME trading on Tuesday, with some technical corrective buying taking place, although end-of-day levels were still mixed, traders said.

"The market has a tired feel to it - there is a bit of possible 'bottom-picking' going on in copper around [$4,600] but it hardly looks convincing," a floor trader said.

The intraday trend change reflected tentative consolidation after some consistent downswings recently rather than a springboard for any recovery.

"The trade are getting less and less involved as we get nearer high summer. And the [investment funds] can get better returns in other areas," the trader added.

US dataflow today - the releases were metals-sensitive - were mixed so, with dollar strength expected to continue, further losses appear likely in the short term. The dollar index has held above 95 since last Thursday and was last around seven-week highs at 95.55.

"The dollar has been well bid this week so it looks like de-risking in all commodities, as precious metals and oil are a bit out of sorts as well," another trader said.

Broadly, concerns about global growth, the prospect of higher US interest rates and the UK's possible exit from the EU are casting a cloud over sentiment.

In the US data, April new home sales were above expectations at an annualised 619,000 compared with a forecast 521,000. But the May Richmond manufacturing index was -1 - it had been expected at 9. Earlier, German ZEW economic sentiment disappointed at 6.4 as did EU economic sentiment at 16.8.

In the metals, copper spent most of the day see-sawing around $4,600 and ended the kerb at $4,602 per tonne, up $40 from Monday, when prices hit $4,545, not far off three-month lows.

In today's warehouse data, stocks rose a net 2,250 tonnes to 157,250 tonnes while cancelled warrants increased 11,450 tonnes to 42,350 tonnes - a move centred on New Orleans.

According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the global refined copper market was in a surplus of 76,000 tonnes (seasonally adjusted surplus of 1,000 tonnes) in the first two months of the year compared with a surplus of around 134,000 tonnes (70,000 tonnes seasonally adjusted) a year earlier.

Tin was under pressure after a decisive breach of $16,000 on the downside - it closed at $15,675/15,680, a $425 loss and just $75 above a three-month low. Earlier, warehouse stocks climbed another 75 tonnes today to 6,885 tonnes.

Elsewhere, aluminium ended in mid-range, with final business at $1,556, up just $2. Inventories and cancelled warrants were down 5,550 tonnes at 2,549,700 tonnes and 1,133,700 tonnes respectively.

Nickel slipped to a seven-week low of $8,330 and then clawed back up to $8,410, an $20 gain. Stocks fell 384 tonnes to 402,504 tonnes - a five-month low - while cancelled warrants dropped 9,012 tonnes to 127,320 tonnes.

Zinc fell to a six-week low at one stage of $1,809 before concluding at $1,829, still down $12. Stocks fell 100 tonnes to 385,675 tonnes and cancelled warrants increased 1,900 tonnes to 31,275 tonnes.

Lead slumped to its lowest in five months at $1,637.50 before closing at $1,650, down $7. Stocks climbed 5,575 tonnes to 185,550 tonnes and cancelled warrants edged down 50 tonnes to 74,025 tonnes.

Steel billet was indicated at $65/115, cobalt at $23,000/23,500 and molybdenum at $14,800/15,300.


(Additional reporting by Ewa Manthey, editing by Mark Shaw)



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