Hong Kong 15/06/2016 - To be or not to be; that is the question - or the question on the majority of delegates' lips during LME Week Asia here, at least - facing the mooted trading platform run by its members and overseen by former LME CEO Martin Abbott.
Opinions are divided over if it will happen, what it will entail and whether it could work in the global trading environment - particularly now that London is not the 'be all and end all'.
Mystery also shrouds the identity of the 11 or so would-be backers and whether more are in the pipeline. Some of those rumoured to be involved could account for a large proportion of LME trading revenue and volume; their move to another exchange could have ramifications not just for the LME but also for parent HKEX.
Both are taking this "undiscovered country" extremely seriously, a well-placed source said.
"This is not a threat. The time for threat has gone. This is people taking action," a second source said.
So quiet had the murmurings been that, when drawing up plans for LME Week Asia, they could not have foreseen the "heartache and the thousand natural shocks" coming its way. Beforehand, it faced questions about falling volumes and the challenge posed by the new Comex copper platform.
But to their credit neither the LME nor HKEX shied from market speculation in various talks and press meetings. While they did not mention the new platform per se, it was quite obvious to whom and what they were referring.
And a re-evaluation of trading fees was mooted - some of them have had "unintended consequences", HKEX CEO Charles Li conceded.
But while fees may have been central to the arguments, others said talk had moved on - frustration was also based on the structure of the LME.
While both Li and Jones reiterated on numerous occasions that the LME still stands by its physical and traditional roots, others countered that it was "talking the talk but not walking the walk".
The exchange recently upset trading firms by allowing members' clients direct access to the LME if they trade electronically.
"We are the ones providing the credit, we are the ones clearing. We are the ones that worry about margin calls, we are the ones that pay for the compliance and clearing issues," one said. "All this on top of paying to be Category One and Two members and yet they get the same fees - that does not add up."
"Exchanges are going to have a bit of a wake-up call. There is a consensus on exchanges circumventing brokers and that is not doing them any good. The holders of the key to clients are brokers," a Hong Kong brokerage said.
Others, however, pointed out that the members walked in with eyes wide open when they sold the exchange to HKEX, netting tidy sums in exchange for ceding control of the direction it would take.
"Does going back to the old way make it better? I can see why the traditional members think so but for others it is not about the way it was but about the way it is," a Singaporean trading house said.
Still, the current economic environment is far from ideal to launch a platform - global growth is slow, investors are seeking better returns in equities and other commodities rather than metals and increasing regulatory issues and costs make it harder than ever before to start from scratch.
"In this environment it is very difficult… there are huge costs involved in starting an exchange and it is not something you can do easily - I wish it well but I do not hold my breath," a banking source said.
Attendees at LME Week Asia also downplayed the immediate impact of the exchange on the LME - in a panel poll with both Li and Jones on Tuesday, around 39 percent of delegates said "the biggest threat to LME future success" was the SHFE, with the CME around 30 percent and 'others' making up the remainder.
But the potential of the mooted platform should not be underestimated, people close to the matter said - the global economic environment may be far from ideal but frustration has reached fever pitch.
The LME is willing to listen, it said, and is holding conversations with its users. But perhaps it needs to take arms against its sea of troubles rather than nobly suffer the slings and arrows coming its way.
(Editing by Mark Shaw)