Winter Park, Florida 20/06/2016 - The global refined copper balance for the first quarter indicates a production surplus of 42,000 tonnes, which equates to a seasonally adjusted deficit of 43,000 tonnes, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said on Monday.
This compares with a production surplus of 143,000 tonnes or a seasonally adjusted surplus of about 75,000 tonnes for the same period of 2015, the trade group said.
In March alone, the global refined copper market recorded an apparent production deficit of around 40,000 tonnes, ICSG said.
World apparent usage in the first quarter increased by seven percent or 390,000 tonnes year-on-year mainly due to higher Chinese imports of refined copper. Chinese apparent demand increased by around 17 percent based on a 40 percent increase in net imports of refined copper, the report said.
Excluding China, world usage slipped by 1.5 percent. On a regional basis, usage is estimated to have increased by four percent in Europe and 11 percent in Asia (when excluding China, Asia usage declined by four percent), while declining by 17 percent and 3.5 percent in Africa and in the Americas respectively and remaining essentially unchanged in Oceania.
Mine production increased by 4.5 percent or 215,000 tonnes in the first quarter. Concentrate production increased by 5.5 percent while solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) increased by one percent.
"The increase in world mine production was mainly due to a 51 percent rise in Peruvian output that is benefitting from new and expanded capacity brought on stream in the last two years. A recovery in production levels in Indonesia and the United States and a ramp-up in production in Mongolia also contributed to world growth," ICSG Said.
This growth was partially offset by a three percent decline in Chile and a 13 percent decline in DRC where output is constrained by temporary production cuts.
On a regional basis, production rose by 7.5 percent in the Americas and five percent in Asia but declined by four percent and 1.5 percent in Africa and in Oceania respectively while remaining essentially unchanged in Europe. The average world mine capacity utilization rate for the first quarter remains practically unchanged form that in the same period of 2015.
Refined copper production rose by five percent or 290,000 tonnes in the quarter. Primary output was up by 5 percent and secondary production climbed by 5.5 percent.
The main contributor to growth was China, up 10 percent, followed by the United States where production increased by 23 percent. Output in Chile and Japan, the second and third leading refined copper producers, increased by five and six percent respectively.
Refined production in the DRC and Zambia declined due to the impact of temporary production cuts. On a regional basis, refined output is estimated to have increased in the Americas (nine percent), Asia (eight percent) and Oceania (14 percent), while declining in Africa (down 16 percent) and in Europe ( down three percent).
The average world refinery capacity utilization rate for the first quarter of 2016 increased to 85 percent from 83 percent in the same period of 2015.
China’s bonded stocks increased by around 135,000 tonnes in the first quarter of 2016 from the year-end 2015 level. Stocks increased by around 30,000 tonnes in the same period of 2015.
The world refined copper balance adjusted for the change in Chinese bonded stocks indicates a production surplus of around 175,000 tonnes compared to a similar surplus in the same period of 2015.