Madrid 29/09/2016 - Total global aluminium stocks including those held on exchange, off-warrant and by producers in and outside China are off their peak but remain high at 11.5-13.5 million tonnes, according to analysts.
Stocks stand at around 13.5 million tonnes, a figure that includes 4.5 million tonnes in China and 9 million tonnes in the rest of the world, JP Morgan analyst Natasha Kaneva said at the MB aluminium conference here.
Rusal analyst Denis Nushtaev estimated global stocks at closer to 11.5 million tonnes, including 3.5 million tonnes in China, down from a peak in the range of 14.5-15 million tonnes two years ago.
Andreas Hommert from Citrine Capital Management put the current number at 12-16 million tonnes while a fourth source said the figure was closer to 14 million tonnes.
Aluminium stocks have continued to shift from the LME to non-LME-registered storage this year due to the exchange's anti-queue policies and cheaper rents available outside the LME warehousing network. This has exacerbated the lack of transparency over stock levels globally.
LME stocks were last at 2.13 million tonnes on Thursday, down from 2.9 million tonnes at the start of the year, while SHFE stocks were at 103,007 tonnes as of September 23. Stocks of aluminium ingot at Japan's three major ports slipped to a 22-month low of 304,200 tonnes at the end of August, according to data compiled by Marubeni Corp.
(Editing by Mark Shaw)